An Overview of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Groundwater Resources

Ahzegbobor P. Aizebeokhai, Kehinde D. Oyeyemi, Adebola Adeniran

Abstract


Climate change has been consistently observed over the past decades to be associated with changes and/or modifications of components of the hydrological systems. Observational records and global and regional climate projections indicate that both surface-water and groundwater resources are vulnerable to climate change and variability. Thus, understanding the impacts of climate change and variability on groundwater systems is integral to better planning and efficient management of groundwater resources. However, assessing and predicting the effects of climate change on groundwater systems is relatively difficult due to the uncertainties associated with the spatial and temporal prediction of future climates. This review provides an overview of the key components of groundwater hydrology in relation to climate change. The effects of changes in climate on groundwater in soil, deep vadose and saturated zones are assessed. The responses of groundwater recharge, discharge, quality and changes in storage to climate change are assessed on inter-annual to multi-decadal or longer geologic time scales.

Keywords


Climate change; Global and regional; Hydrological systems; Groundwater resources; Potential impacts

Full Text:

PDF

References


D.M. Allen, D.C. Mackie and M. Wei, Groundwater and climate change: a sensitivity analysis for the Grand Forks aquifer, southern British Columbia, Canada, Hydrogeology Journal 12 (3) (2004), 270 – 290.

W.M. Alley, Tracking US groundwater: reserves for the future? Environment 48 (3) (2006), 10 – 25.

W.M. Alley, Groundwater and climate change, Ground Water 39 (2) (2001), 161.

W.M. Alley, Regional Ground-Water Quality, Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York, 634p (1993).

W.M. Alley, R. W. Healy, J.W. LaBaugh and T.E. Reilly, Flow and storage in groundwater systems, Science 296 (5575) (2002), 1985 – 1990.

A.P. Aizebeokhai, Potential impacts of climate change and variability on groundwater resources in Nigeria, African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 5 (10) (2011), 760 – 768.

A.P. Aizebeokhai, Global warming and climate change: realities, uncertainties and measures, International Journal of Physical Sciences 4 (13) (2009), 868 – 879.

J.O. Aribisala, M.S. Awopetu, O.I. Ademilua, E.A. Okunadel and W.O. Adebayo, Effect of climate change on groundwater resources in southwest Nigeria, Journal of Environment and Earth Science 5 (12) (2015), 2224 – 3216.

T.P. Barnett, D.W. Pierce, H.G. Hidalgo, C. Bonfils, B.D. Santer, T. Das, G. Bala, A.W. Wood, T. Nozawa, A.A. Mirin, D.R. Cayan and M.D. Dettinger, Human-induced changes in the hydrology of western United States, Science 319 (5866) (2008), 1080 – 1083.

R. Barthel, B.G. Sonneveld, J.S. Geotzinger, M.A. Keyzer, S. Pande, A. Printz and T. Gaiser, Integrated assessment of groundwater resources in the Queme basin, West Africa, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 34 (4-5) (2009), 236 – 250.

B.C. Bates, Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu and J.P. Palutikof, Climate change and water, Technical Paper IV of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 210 p. (2008).

C.I. Bovolo, G. Parkin and M. Sophocleous, Groundwater resources, climate and vulnerability, Environmental Research Letter 4 (3) (2009), 035001.

L.D. Brekke, J.E. Kiang, J.R. Olsen, R.S. Pulwarty, D.A. Raff, D.P. Turnipseed, R.S. Webb and K.D. White, Climate change and water resources management – A federal perspective, U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1331 (2009), 65 p.

S. Brouyere, G. Carabin and A. Dassargues, Climate change impacts on groundwater resources: modelled deficits in a chalky aquifer, Ger Basin, Belgium, Hydrogeology Journal 12 (2) (2004), 123 – 134.

R. Calow and A. MacDonald, What will climate change mean for groundwater supply in Africa, Background Note prepared for Overseas Development Institute and British Geological Survey, 8p (2009).

B.S. Caruso, Temporal and spatial patterns of extreme low flows and effects on stream ecosystems in Otago, New Zealand, Journal of Hydrology 257 (1-4) (2002), 115 – 133.

M.C. Castro, C.M. Hall, D. Patriarche, P. Goblet and B.R. Ellis, A new noble gas palaeoclimate record in Texas – basic assumptions revisited, Earth Planet Science Letter 257 (1-2) (2007), 170 – 187.

D.R. Cayan, S.A. Kammerdiener, M.D. Dettinger, J.M. Caprio and D.H. Peterson, Changes in the onset of spring in the western United States, Bulletin of American Meteorological Society 82 (2001), 399 – 415.

Z. Chen, S. Grasby and K. Osadetz, Relation between climate variability and groundwater levels in the upper carbonate aquifer, Southern Manitoba, Canada, Journal of Hydrology 290 (1-2) (2004), 43 – 62.

Z. Cheng and T. Wu, Responses of permafrost to climate change and their environmental significance, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (2007), F02503, doi:10.1029/2006JF000631.

D. Cohen, M. Person, R. Daannen, S. Locke, D. Dahlstrom, V. Zabielski, T.C. Winter, D.O. Rosenberry, H. Wright and E. Ito, Groundwater-supported evapotranspiration within glaciated watersheds under conditions of climate change, Journal of Hydrology 320 (3-4) (2006), 484 – 500.

T.E. Croley and C.I. Luukkonen, Potential effects of climate change on groundwater in Lansing, Michigan, Journal of the American Water Resources Association 39 (1) (2013), 149 – 163.

M. Dettinger and S. Earman, Western groundwater and climate change – pivotal to supply sustainability or vulnerable in its own right? Ground Water News 4 (2007), 4 – 5.

P. De Vita, V. Allocca, F. Manna and S. Fabbrocino, Coupled decadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation, regional rainfall and karst spring discharges in the Campania region (southern Italy), Hydrology of Earth Systems Science 16 (2012), 1389 – 1399.

W. Dragoni and B.S. Sukhija, Climate change and groundwater – a short review, in: W. Dragoni and B.S. Sikhija (Eds.), Climate Change and Groundwater: London, Geological Society, Special Publications 288 (2008), 1–12.

E. Earman and M. Dettinger, Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater resources – A global review, Journal of Water and Climate Change 2 (4) (2011), 213 – 229.

S. Earman, A.R. Campbell, B.D. Newman and F.M. Phillips, Isotopic exchange between snow and atmospheric water vapor: estimation of the snowmelt component of groundwater recharge in the southwestern United State, Journal of Geophysical Research 111 (2006), D09302.

E. Eckhardt and U. Ulbrich, Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and streamflow in a central European low mountain range, Journal of Hydrology 284 (1-4) (2003), 244 – 252.

W.W. Edmunds and C.J. Milne, Palaeowaters in Coastal Europe: Evolution of Groundwater since the Late Pleistocene, Geological Society Special Publications 189 (2001), 332 p.

Y. Fan, C.J. Duffy and J.D.S. Oliver, Density-driven groundwater flow in closed deserts basins: field investigations and numerical experiments, Journal of Hydrology 196 (1-4) (1997), 139 – 184.

Y. Fan, G. Miguez-Macho, C.P. Weaver, R. Walko and A. Robock, Incorporating water table dynamics in climate modelling: water table observations and equilibrium water table simulations, Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (2007), D10125.

S. Foster, J. Chilton, G.J. Nijsten and A. Richts, Groundwater: a global focus on the ‘local resource’, Current Opinion on Environmental Sustainability 5 (2013), 685 – 695.

F. Gasse, Hydrological changes in the African tropics since the last glacial maximum, Quaternary Science Review 19 (1-5) (2000), 189 – 211.

M. Ghil, Natural climate variability, in: M.C. MacCraken and J.S. Perry (Eds.), Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change, Volume 1, The Earth System: Physical and Chemical Dimensions of Global Environmental Change, Chichester, John Wiley and Sons, 544–549 (2002).

W.E. Glassley, J.J. Nitao, C.W. Grant, J.W. Johnson, C.I. Steefel and J.R. Kercher, The impact of climate change on vadose zone pore waters and its implications for long-term monitoring, Computational Geoscience 29 (3) (2003), 399 – 411.

E. Georgopoulou, A. Kotronarou, A. Koussis, P.J. Restrepo, A. Gomez-Gotor and J. Rodriguez Jimenez, A methodology to investigate brackish groundwater desalination coupled with aquifer recharge by treated wastewater as an alternative strategy for water supply in Mediterranean

areas, Desalination Journal 136 (2001), 307 – 315.

T.R. Green, B.C. Bates, S.P. Charles and P.M. Fleming, Physically based simulation of potential effects of carbon dioxide: Altered climates on groundwater recharge, Vadose Zone Journal 6 (3) (2007), 597 – 609.

T.R. Green, M. Taniguchi, H. Kooi, J.J. Gurdak, D.M. Allen, K.M. Hiscock, H. Treidel and A. Aureli, Beneath the surface of global change: Impacts of climate change on groundwater, Journal of Hydrology 405 (2011), 532 – 560.

J.J. Gurdak, R.T. Hanson and T.R. Green, Effects of climate variability and change on groundwater resources of the United States, http://pubs.gov/fs/2009/3074/ (2009).

J.J. Gurdak, R.T. Hanson, P.B. McMahon, B.W. Bruce, J.E. McCray, G.D. Thyne and R.C. Reedy, Climate variability controls on unsaturated water and chemical movement, High Plains aquifer, USA, Vadose Zone Journal 6 (3) (2007), 533 – 547.

J.J. Gurdak, M.A. Walvoord and P.B. McMahon, Susceptibility to enhanced chemical migration from depression-focused preferential flow, High Plains aquifer, Vadose Zone Journal 7 (4) (2008), 1172 – 1184.

S. Haldorsen, M. Heim, B. Dale, J.Y. Landvik, M. van der Ploeg, A. Leijnse, O. Salvigsen, J.O. Hagen and O. Banks, Sensitivity to long-term climate change of subpermafrost groundwater systems in Svalbard, Quaternary Research 73 (2010), 393 – 402.

R.T. Hanson and M.D. Dettinger, Ground water/surface water responses to global climate simulations, Santa Clara–Calleguas Basin, Ventura, California, Journal of the American Water Resources Association 41 (3) (2005), 517 – 536.

R.T. Hanson, M.D. Dettinger and M.W. Newhouse, Relations between climatic variability and hydrologic time series from four alluvial basins across the southwestern United States, Hydrogeology Journal 14 (7) (2006), 1122 – 1146.

R.T. Hanson, J.A. Izbicki, E.G. Reichard, B.E. Edwards, M.T. Land and P. Martin, Comparison of ground-water flow in southern California coastal aquifers, in: H.J. Lee and B. Normark (Eds.), Earth sciences in the urban ocean – The southern California continental borderland, Geological

Society of America Special 454 (2009), 345 – 373.

R.T. Hanson, M.W. Newhouse and M.D. Dettinger, A methodology to assess relations between climate variability and variations in hydrologic time series in the southwestern United States, Hydrogeology Journal 287 (1-4) (2004), 252 – 269.

T.G. Huntington, Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: review and synthesis, Journal Hydrology 319 (2006), 83 – 95.

I.P. Holman, Climate change impacts on ground-water recharge: Uncertainty, shortcomings, and the way forward, Hydrogeology Journal 14 (5) (2006), 637 – 647.

K.C. Hsu, C.H. Wang, K.C. Chen, C.T. Chen and K.W. Ma, Climate-induced hydrological impacts on the groundwater system of the Pingtung Plain, Taiwan, Hydrology Journal 15 (5) (2007), 903 – 913.

IPCC, Climate change 2013: The physical science basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom (2013).

IPCC, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and A. Reisinger (eds.)], IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 p. (2007).

K. Jasper, P. Calanca and J. Fuhrer, Changes in summertime soil water patterns in complex terrain due to climate change, Journal of Hydrology 327 (3-4) (2006), 550 – 563.

B.E. Jiménez Cisneros, T. Oki, N.W. Arnell, W. Benito, J.G. Cogley, P. Döll, T. Jiang and S.S. Mwakalila, Freshwater resources, in: C.B. Field, V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea and L.L. White (Eds.), Climate Change

: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 229 – 269 (2014).

H.F. Jungkunst, H. Flessa, C. Scherber and S. Fiedler, Groundwater level controls CO2, N2O and CH4 fluxes of three different hydromorphic soil types of a temperate forest ecosystem, Soil Biology and Biochemistry 40 (8) (2008), 2047 – 2054.

W.J. Kimmerer, Effects of freshwater flow on abundance of estuarine organisms: physical effects or trophic linkages? Marine Ecology Progress Series 243 (2002), 39 – 55.

H. Kitabata, K. Nishizawa, Y. oshida and K. Maruyama, Permafrost thawing in circum-artic and highlands under climate change scenario projected by community climate system model (CCSM3), Science Online Letters and Atmosphere 2 (2006), 53 – 56.

Z.W. Kundzewicz, L.J. Mata, N.W. Arnell, P. Doll, P. Kabat, B. Jimenez, K.A. Miller, T. Oki, Z. Sen and A.I. Shiklomanov, Freshwater resources and their management, in: M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (Eds.), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Cambridge University Press, 173 – 210 (2007).

A.J.M. Kuss and J.J. Gurdak, Groundwater level response in U.S. principal aquifers to ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AMO, Journal of Hydrology 519 (2014), 1939 – 1952.

N. Lambrakis and G. Kallergis, Reaction of subsurface coastal aquifers to climate and land use changes in Greece: modelling of groundwater refreshening patterns under natural recharge conditions, Journal of Hydrology 245 (1-4) (2001), 19 – 31.

H.A. Loaiciga, Climate change and ground water, Annals of the Association of American Geographers 93 (1) (2003), 30 – 41.

H.A. Loaiciga, D.R. Maidment and J.B. Valdes, Climate-change impacts in a regional karst aquifer, Texas, USA, Journal of Hydrology 227 (1-4) (2000), 173 – 194.

R.K. Mall, A. Gupta, R. Singh, R.S. Singh and I.S. Rathore, Water resources and climate change: An Indian perspective, Current Science 90 (12) (2006), 1610 – 1626.

T.D. Mayer and R.D. Congdon, Evaluating climate variability and pumping effects in statistical analysis, Ground Water 46 (2) (2008), 212 – 227.

L.O. Mearns, M. Hulme, T.R. Carter, R. Leemans, M. Lal and P. Whetton, Climate scenario development, in: S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (Eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of

Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, USA, 739-768 (2007).

N.L. Miller, L.L. Dale, C.F. Brush, S.D. Vicuna, T.N. Kadir, E.C. Dogrul and F.I. Chung, Drought resilience of the California Centra Valley surface-ground-water-conveyance system, Journal of American Water Resources Association 45 (4) (2009), 857 – 866.

P.C.D. Milly, K.A. Dunne and A.V. Vecchia, Global pattern of trends in stream flow and water availability in a changing climate, Nature 438 (7066) (2005), 347 – 350.

A. Miyakoshi, M. Taniguchi, Y. Okubo and T. Uemura, Evaluation of subsurface flow for reconstructions of climate change using borehole temperature and isotope data in Kamchatka, Physical Earth Planet International 152 (4) (2005), 335 – 342.

P.W. Mote, A.F. Hamlet, M.P. Clark and D.P. Lettenmaier, Declining mountain snowpack in western North America, American Meteorological Society 86 (1) (2005), 39 – 49.

O. Novicky, L. Kasparek and J. Unlik, Vulnerability of groundwater resources in different hydrology conditions to climate change, in: M. Taniguchi and I.P. Holman (Eds.), Groundwater Response to Changing Climate, International Association of Hydrogeologists Selected Paper, CRC

Press, Taylor and Francis Group, London, UK, 1 – 10 (2010).

J. Okkonen, M. Jyrkama and B. Klove, A conceptual approach for assessing the impact of climate change on groundwater and related surface waters in cold regions (Finland), Hydrogeology Journal 18 (2) (2009), 429 – 439.

G.H.P. Oude Essink, E.S. van Baaren and P.G.B. de Louw, Effects of climate change on coastal groundwater systems: a modelling study in the Netherlands, Water Resources Research 46, W00F04, doi:10.1029/2009WR008719 (2010).

S. Ouysse, N.E. Laftouhi and K. Tajeddine, Impacts of climate variability on the water resources in the Draa basin (Morocco): analysis of the rainfall regime and groundwater discharge and groundwater recharge, in: M. Taniguchi and I.P. Holman (Eds.), Groundwater Response to Changing Climate, International Association of Hydrogeologists Selected Papers, CRC Press, Taylor and Francis Group, London, UK, 27 – 48 (2010).

S.P. Ranja, S. Kazama and M. Sawamoto, Effect of climate and land use changes on groundwater resources in coastal aquifers, Journal of Environmental Management 80 (1) (2006), 25 – 35.

D.L. Sahagian, F.W. Schwartz and D.K. Jacobs, Direct anthropogenic contributions to sea level rise in the twentieth century, Nature 367 (1994), 54 – 57.

M. Salgot and A. Torrens, Impacts of climate change on water resources: the future of groundwater recharge with reclaimed water in the south of Europe, in: W. Dragoni and B.S. Sukhija (Eds.), Climate Change and Groundwater, Geological Society Special Publication 288 (2008), 147 – 168.

K. Sandstrom, Modelling the effects of rainfall variability on groundwater recharge in semi-arid Tanzania, Nordic Hydrology 26 (1995), 313 – 330.

T. Schneider, Uncertainty in climate-sensitivity estimates, Nature 446 (2007), doi:10.1038/nature05707.

S.I. Seneviratne, T. Corti, E.L. Davin, M. Hirschi, E.B. Jaeger, I. Lehner, B. Orlowsky and A.J. Teuling, Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate – a review, Earth-Science Review 99 (3-4) (2010), 125 – 161.

M.M. Sherif and V.P. Singh, Effect of climate change on sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers, Hydrologic Processes 13 (1999), 1277 – 1287.

M. Soldati, A. Corsini and A. Pasuto, Landslide and climate change in the Italian Dolomites since the late glacial, Catena 55 (2) (2004), 141 – 161.

M. Sophocleous, Climate change: why should water professionals care? Ground Water 42 (5) (2004), 637.

F. Sugita and K. Nakane, Combined effects of rainfall pattern and porous media properties on nitrate leaching, Vadose Zone Journal 6 (2007), 548 – 553.

M. Taniguchi, Estimations of the past groundwater recharge rate from deep borehole temperature data, Catena 48 (1-2) (2002), 39 – 51.

M. Taniguchi, W.C. Burnett and C.D. Ness, Integrated research on subsurface environments in Asian urban areas, Science of Total Environment 404 (2-3) (2008), 377 – 392.

A. Toure, B. Diekkruger and A. Mariko, Impact of climate change on groundwater resources in Klela Basin, Southern Mali, Hydrology 3 (2) (2016), 17, doi:10.3390/hydrology3020017.

S.J.E. Van Dijck, A. Laouina, A.V. Carvalho, S. Loos, A.M. Schipper, H. Van der Kwast, R. Nafaa, M. Antari, A. Rocha, C. Borrego and C.J. Ritsema, Desertification in northern Morocco due to effects of climate change on groundwater recharge, in: W.G. Kepner, J.L. Rubio, D.A. Mouat and F. Pedrazzini (Eds.), Desertification in the Mediterranean region: A Security Issue, Springer, Dordrecht, Netherlands, 554 – 577 (2006).

A. Vandenbohede, K. Luyten and L. Lebbe, Effects of global change on heterogeneous coastal aquifers: a case study in Belgium, Journal of Coastal Resources 24 (2 Supplementary B) (2008), 160 – 170.

E.M. Velasco, J.J. Gurdak, J.E. Dickinson, T.P.A. Ferre and C.R. Corona, Interannual to multidecadal climate forcings on groundwater resources of the U.S. West Coast, Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, G Model EJRH-159, 16 p. (2015), doi:10.106/j.ejrh.2015.11.018.

S.M. Vicente-Serrano, J.I. López-Moreno, L. Gimeno, R. Nieto, E. Morán-Tejeda, J. Lorenzo-Lacruz, S. Beguería and C. Azorin-Molina, A multi-scalar global evaluation of the impact of ENSO on droughts, Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011), doi:10.1029/2011jd016039.

M.A. Walvoord and R.G. Striegl, Increased groundwater to stream discharge from permafrost thawing in the Yukon River basin: potential impacts on lateral export of carbon and nitrogen, Geophysical Research Letters 34 (2007), L12402.

T. Wang, E. Istanbulluoglu, J. Lenters and D. Scott, On the role of groundwater and soil texture in the regional water balance: an investigation of the Nebraska Sand hills, USA, Water Resources Research 45 (10) (2009), W10413.

S.D. Warner, Climate change, sustainability, and ground water remediation: The connection, Ground Water Monitoring and Remediation 27 (4) (2007), 50 – 52.

T.C. Winter, Relations of streams, lakes, and wetlands to groundwater flow systems, Hydrogeology Journal 7 (1) (1999), 28 – 45.

S.T. Woldeamlak, O. Batelaan and F. De Smedt, The effects of climate change on groundwater system in the Grote-Nete catchment, Belgium, Hydrogeology Journal 15 (5) (2007), 891 – 901.

I. Yusoff, K.M. Hiscock and D. Conway, Simulation of the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources in Eastern England, in: K.M. Hiscock, M.O. Rivertt and R.M. Davidson (Eds.), Sustainable Groundwater Development, Geological Survey of London, London, 325 – 344 (2002).

C. Zhang, M. Dong, S. Gualdi, H.H. Hendon, E.D. Maloney, A. Marshall, K.R. Sperber and W. Wang, Simulations of the Madden-Julian oscillation in four pairs of coupled and uncoupled global modes, Climate Dynamics 27 (6) (2006), 573 – 592.

Y. Zhou, Z. Francois, W. Yanxin and I. Yilian, Impact of climate change on irrigation requirements in terms of groundwater resources, Hydrogeology Journal 18 (2010), 1571 – 1582.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.26713%2Fjims.v9i2.745

eISSN 0975-5748; pISSN 0974-875X